Chinese cargo traffic data indicates an e-commerce driven surge in year-end air freight volumes not reflected in trade data. Due to value reporting thresholds trade data does a poor job of tracking cross border e-commerce volumes which by some accounts could account for a fifth of international air cargo volumes. Chinese international air cargo shows strong growth over the last three months.
Posts tagged as “China”
This week the IMF published its 6 monthly world economic outlook and associated databases. Compared to the April 2023 version, the outlook for trade in 2023 has deteriorated. The current expectation for 2023 goods imports is a decline of 0.5% rather than growth of 1.6%. At a country level, the picture is mixed – with some countries showing an upgrade and others a downgrade of their previous outlook. This article focuses both on the overall outlook as well as where changes have occurred.
Mexican trade has shown healthy growth this year, with export value up 7% and imports 6% for the first half of the year. Both import and export growth has been primarily driven by the automotive sectors as well as industrial equipment and parts. Data indicates that Mexico is benefiting from tensions between the US and China, particularly in relation to automotive imports and exports.
China has a market share of about 20% of the world electric car market outside China as well as being the world's largest electric car market. Growth in Chinese car exports has been exponential with exports of electric cars growing 123% so far this year. However, electric export growth has also been picking up in traditionally combustion focused countries such as Japan.
The overall outlook for world trade in 2023 is nothing to get excited about, but it’s not all doom and gloom. Short- and medium-term growth of both exports from and imports into Southeast and South Asia are expected to do well, including to and from Indonesia, India, Turkey, Singapore, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia. The US and China may continue to drag down overall world trade growth, which is expected to be around 1.5-1.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.
The traditional Euro-North America centric view of the world is outdated. China is no longer the world’s manufacturing subcontractor, but in many ways the driving force behind the world’s economy. Changes in the structure of the Chinese economy towards high value manufacturing and increasing strength in industrial sectors previously dominated by European and North American companies are reflected in trade data. While there is little hard evidence of a pivot away from China, we find that Chinese trade has become successively more Southeast Asia focused since 2012/2013
Trade in integrated circuits is worth almost $1 trillion annually. This includes processers, controllers, memory chips and the like, which form the centrepiece of most things we use or drive. Machinery and related parts, accessories and tools for producing semiconductors are worth another $100 billion per year. The value of semiconductor and machinery trade is higher than it was in 2018, but trade patterns are changing significantly with new production capacity being established around the world and not just in China and the United States.
India is now the world’s most populous country, but the Chinese economy is six times larger. However, with Indian economic and manufacturing growth expected to outperform in the near term there are opportunities for growth increased growth in trade. India could also benefit from a US and European pivot away from China and a friendly investment regime. Exports in 2022 grew by almost 10% and imports by 17%. Particularly the import performance of industrial equipment, parts and supplies is an indicator of future increases in manufacturing output and exports.
Papua New Guinea is the largest economy in the Pacific Islands, accounting for 45 % of the region’s overall economic output, and as much as New Caledonia, Guam, French Polynesia and Fiji combined. Over 90% of exports are linked to energy and mining industries, but imports are more diverse. With a strong link to Australia, the economy is less dependent on Chinese imports than others in the region. Contrary to other islands in the region this has also not changed. However, the status quo should not be taken for granted as we are beginning to identify an emerging shift, with Chinese export value to Papua New Guinea outperforming other major trading partners.
China is by far Australia’s most important trading partner. Dependence on China has increased and not decreased. Australia draws around 30% of its imports from China, up from about 21% in 2013. On the export side, China’s share of the value of Australian exports has fluctuated between 34% to 44% over the last 10 years. Most of that is driven by iron ore exports. This article looks at the trading relationship and mutual dependence between Australia and China.