This week the IMF published its 6 monthly world economic outlook and associated databases. Compared to the April 2023 version, the outlook for trade in 2023 has deteriorated. The current expectation for 2023 goods imports is a decline of 0.5% rather than growth of 1.6%. At a country level, the picture is mixed – with some countries showing an upgrade and others a downgrade of their previous outlook. This article focuses both on the overall outlook as well as where changes have occurred.
Posts tagged as “trade outlook”
The overall outlook for world trade in 2023 is nothing to get excited about, but it’s not all doom and gloom. Short- and medium-term growth of both exports from and imports into Southeast and South Asia are expected to do well, including to and from Indonesia, India, Turkey, Singapore, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia. The US and China may continue to drag down overall world trade growth, which is expected to be around 1.5-1.7% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024.