Uzbekistan is an interesting place and not just because we have a fondness for Plov. With a population of 34.5 million it is the largest country in Central Asia and the Caucasus region and the second largest economy after Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan’s import and export market is also more diverse than other countries in the region, which typically generate two thirds of their import and export value with energy, mining and bulk agricultural commodities. Despite being landlocked, Uzbekistan has grown imports and exports faster than other countries in the region and is expected to continue to do so.
Posts tagged as “Outlook”
In terms of output, South Africa’s economy is the second largest on the continent after Nigeria. From an airfreight and container shipping perspective, South Africa is the most important market. Annual air cargo traffic is in the order of 350,000 tonnes, while container throughout at main ports has been around 4 million TEU per year. Economically, South Africa has had a bumpy ride over the past decade, and this is also reflected in international trade figures. However, 2022 performance was good with trade value growing at 9.5% overall. 2023 expectations point towards further growth, although the current power crisis could derail this.
Brazilian air trade grew by 2% in 2022 and is now about 14% above 2019 levels. As with other air cargo markets around the world the first half of the year was strong while volumes declined in the second half of the year and particularly in November and December. This is in line with a drop in manufacturing activity in the last months of the year. Manufacturing activity is expected to recover in 2023. In the medium-term Brazil could well benefit from a trend to dual sourcing.
The overall expectation for trade in most large economies – the US, the European Union, Japan and even China - is for little growth or even declining volumes. The next year is likely to look very different to last year and the next three years very different to the last three years. Southeast Asia and South Asia are expected to show much stronger performance than Northeast Asia. This article discusses 2022 and 2023 import and export performance across Northeast, Southeast and South Asia.
Transatlantic air cargo was a real bright spot in 2022, both in terms of volumes and market rates. Containerised shipping did not do as well in volume terms, but rates have remained strong even as they have tumbled back down to earth in other markets. This analysis discusses the interplay between demand, capacity, and the relative competitive position between air and sea freight and how this is likely to evolve over the next year.