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Posts tagged as “Europe”

No Recovery in Near Term EU Industrial Outlook

Recent EU survey data does not point to an immediate recovery nor further deterioration of trade relevant economic activity. Manufacturing activity continues to be weak, but overall retail sales development has been somewhat positive. Several indicators are looking positive for Southern Europe, which could lead a recovery of economic activity. This article includes an interactive dashboard with key economic and employment sentiment indexes, confidence indicators and industry and retail data for the 27 EU Member States and Türkiye.

Overall Chinese Trade Declines as Cross Border E-Commerce Surges

The last twelve months have seen a large increase in cross-border e-commerce traffic, primarily driven by China which has increased its share as the main origin of shipments. Chinese cross-border e-commerce growth in turn appears to have been largely driven two platforms, Temu and Shein, which together with the various Alibaba Group marketplaces and Amazon account for the bulk of international volumes. We estimate that Chinese cross border e-commerce trade grew by almost 30% last year and accounted for over 8% of the value of Chinese international trade.

Trade Outlook Downgrade in Latest Forecast

This week the IMF published its 6 monthly world economic outlook and associated databases. Compared to the April 2023 version, the outlook for trade in 2023 has deteriorated. The current expectation for 2023 goods imports is a decline of 0.5% rather than growth of 1.6%. At a country level, the picture is mixed – with some countries showing an upgrade and others a downgrade of their previous outlook. This article focuses both on the overall outlook as well as where changes have occurred.

China Drives Global Electric Car Sales and Trade

China has a market share of about 20% of the world electric car market outside China as well as being the world's largest electric car market. Growth in Chinese car exports has been exponential with exports of electric cars growing 123% so far this year. However, electric export growth has also been picking up in traditionally combustion focused countries such as Japan.

Indian Exports Show a Trend to Higher Value Products

PRC (including Hong Kong), USA, Germany, and the UAE today account for about 56% of import and 40% of export value. The importance of China as a source of imports and the US as a source of exports has increased. On a commodity level, Indian exports have diversified away from apparel and footwear towards industrial equipment and parts and mobile phones and communication equipment. The import side has seen an increase in the importance of semiconductors and related equipment. Pharmaceutical and automotive exports have grown, but their share of total trade value has stayed constant.

China’s Long-Term Pivot to Southeast Asia

The traditional Euro-North America centric view of the world is outdated. China is no longer the world’s manufacturing subcontractor, but in many ways the driving force behind the world’s economy. Changes in the structure of the Chinese economy towards high value manufacturing and increasing strength in industrial sectors previously dominated by European and North American companies are reflected in trade data. While there is little hard evidence of a pivot away from China, we find that Chinese trade has become successively more Southeast Asia focused since 2012/2013

Cut Flowers from Latin America Performed Better than East Africa

The worldwide cut flower market generates about 1.5 million tonnes of exports every year worth about $8 billion. In intercontinental markets most of that moves by air, but there has been a mode shift observed in some markets. Four countries account for almost 80% of worldwide fresh cut flower exports – the Netherlands, Colombia, Kenya and Ecuador. The biggest worldwide import markets include the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia and Japan.  Cross border demand for flowers has followed a moderate upward growth trend over the past ten years, increasing by about 3% per year. US import markets have performed better than Europe and from an exporter perspective Colombia and Ecuador have done well.

Ukraine Exports and Imports in 2022

Ukraine’s exports and imports were down substantially in 2022. This kind of development is not surprising given the amount of disruption that has and continues to take place. However, the remarkable thing is that trade continues and has even rebounded throughout the year. Ukraine’s trade has clearly benefitted from its border with the European Union and access to Western European logistics networks to move goods in and out of the country. This analysis looks at how the structure of Ukraine’s imports and exports have changed throughout 2022.

Global Vaccine Trade Has Increased Substantially but Will It Last?

COVID-19 vaccine production has led to significant additional temporary global vaccine traffic. However, with countries such as Brazil, China or India growing their manufacturing base this could create new regular cross border flows. This article looks at global vaccine production and cross border vaccine flows in and out of China, India, the United States and the European Union, as well as emerging flows out of countries such as Brazil and Russia.

Chinese Exports and Imports in 2022 Reflect Changing Trade Relationships

The value of Chinese exports increased by 7% in 2022, while imports grew only 2.5%. This follows growth of 30% in 2021. These numbers hide some very uneven performance on a province and trading partner level, which reflect changing Chinese trading patterns with key partners such as the US, but also economic weakness in Europe.

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