In terms of output, South Africa’s economy is the second largest on the continent after Nigeria. From an airfreight and container shipping perspective, South Africa is the most important market. Annual air cargo traffic is in the order of 350,000 tonnes, while container throughout at main ports has been around 4 million TEU per year. Economically, South Africa has had a bumpy ride over the past decade, and this is also reflected in international trade figures. However, 2022 performance was good with trade value growing at 9.5% overall. 2023 expectations point towards further growth, although the current power crisis could derail this.
Posts tagged as “Air”
COVID-19 vaccine production has led to significant additional temporary global vaccine traffic. However, with countries such as Brazil, China or India growing their manufacturing base this could create new regular cross border flows. This article looks at global vaccine production and cross border vaccine flows in and out of China, India, the United States and the European Union, as well as emerging flows out of countries such as Brazil and Russia.
Brazilian air trade grew by 2% in 2022 and is now about 14% above 2019 levels. As with other air cargo markets around the world the first half of the year was strong while volumes declined in the second half of the year and particularly in November and December. This is in line with a drop in manufacturing activity in the last months of the year. Manufacturing activity is expected to recover in 2023. In the medium-term Brazil could well benefit from a trend to dual sourcing.
Airfreight is primarily an industrial tool, with roughly three quarters of airfreight traffic linked to the various stages of production. Global manufacturing and airfreight tend to move in sync. Based on the outlook for manufacturing we expect US airfreight exports to decline by about 7% and imports to drop by about 3% in 2023.
Transatlantic air cargo was a real bright spot in 2022, both in terms of volumes and market rates. Containerised shipping did not do as well in volume terms, but rates have remained strong even as they have tumbled back down to earth in other markets. This analysis discusses the interplay between demand, capacity, and the relative competitive position between air and sea freight and how this is likely to evolve over the next year.
China is the primary source of cross border e-commerce worldwide, on average accounting for about one third of the origin of all purchases. Growth has stalled over the last three years, with high transportation costs and lack of capacity an impediment to growth.
Apparel and footwear accounts for about 9% of US airfreight imports and about 5% of US containerised imports by sea. China is the single largest market, but growth has come from Vietnam, Cambodia, India and Bangladesh. Air has a share of roughly 6% of the weight and 18% of the value of shipments, but subject to large fluctuations and differences between market.
China to Europe rail import and export volumes are down 10% and 56%, respectively, for the first 10 months of 2022. This follows several years of phenomenal growth, where both imports and exports into the 27 Members States of the European Union (EU) grew by 27% annually.
Understanding what drives mode choice is key to understanding the demand for freight transportation capacity, in particular for air cargo and long-distance rail, where small shifts to and from ships can have big impacts. This article looks at what drives the choice of air, sea, road and rail transport.
This first article looks at the things that shape our thinking about the prospects for world trade in goods: the markets that matter, how trade relates to economic activity, the importance of air, sea, road and rail and the factors that drive or destroy growth.