India is now the world’s most populous country, but the Chinese economy is six times larger. However, with Indian economic and manufacturing growth expected to outperform in the near term there are opportunities for growth increased growth in trade. India could also benefit from a US and European pivot away from China and a friendly investment regime. Exports in 2022 grew by almost 10% and imports by 17%. Particularly the import performance of industrial equipment, parts and supplies is an indicator of future increases in manufacturing output and exports.
Trade Data Service
Papua New Guinea is the largest economy in the Pacific Islands, accounting for 45 % of the region’s overall economic output, and as much as New Caledonia, Guam, French Polynesia and Fiji combined. Over 90% of exports are linked to energy and mining industries, but imports are more diverse. With a strong link to Australia, the economy is less dependent on Chinese imports than others in the region. Contrary to other islands in the region this has also not changed. However, the status quo should not be taken for granted as we are beginning to identify an emerging shift, with Chinese export value to Papua New Guinea outperforming other major trading partners.
China is by far Australia’s most important trading partner. Dependence on China has increased and not decreased. Australia draws around 30% of its imports from China, up from about 21% in 2013. On the export side, China’s share of the value of Australian exports has fluctuated between 34% to 44% over the last 10 years. Most of that is driven by iron ore exports. This article looks at the trading relationship and mutual dependence between Australia and China.
Dependence entails risk. Reliance on a single supplier or source for imports of a certain raw material or intermediate product makes supply chains vulnerable to disruptions and geopolitical tensions. About 12% of world trade is in product groups where a single country has a share of more than 50% of exports of that product. In about half of all cases, China is the dominant exporter, but not everywhere. This article looks at which countries dominate exports for certain raw materials, intermediate and finished goods.
Uzbekistan is an interesting place and not just because we have a fondness for Plov. With a population of 34.5 million it is the largest country in Central Asia and the Caucasus region and the second largest economy after Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan’s import and export market is also more diverse than other countries in the region, which typically generate two thirds of their import and export value with energy, mining and bulk agricultural commodities. Despite being landlocked, Uzbekistan has grown imports and exports faster than other countries in the region and is expected to continue to do so.
The worldwide cut flower market generates about 1.5 million tonnes of exports every year worth about $8 billion. In intercontinental markets most of that moves by air, but there has been a mode shift observed in some markets. Four countries account for almost 80% of worldwide fresh cut flower exports – the Netherlands, Colombia, Kenya and Ecuador. The biggest worldwide import markets include the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia and Japan. Cross border demand for flowers has followed a moderate upward growth trend over the past ten years, increasing by about 3% per year. US import markets have performed better than Europe and from an exporter perspective Colombia and Ecuador have done well.
With shipments of Australian coal to China starting again after a two-year de-facto import ban, this article focuses on the trends and outlook relating to international coal flows. Japan, China, India and South Korea collectively account for over half of worldwide coal imports, while Australia, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and the United States account for three quarters of worldwide coal exports. In the last two years Australia has largely been able compensate for the loss of the Chinese market, which accounted for 26% of total coal exports in 2019. Changes in demand and production patterns are likely to affect overall flows as well as market shares between countries.
In terms of output, South Africa’s economy is the second largest on the continent after Nigeria. From an airfreight and container shipping perspective, South Africa is the most important market. Annual air cargo traffic is in the order of 350,000 tonnes, while container throughout at main ports has been around 4 million TEU per year. Economically, South Africa has had a bumpy ride over the past decade, and this is also reflected in international trade figures. However, 2022 performance was good with trade value growing at 9.5% overall. 2023 expectations point towards further growth, although the current power crisis could derail this.
Ukraine’s exports and imports were down substantially in 2022. This kind of development is not surprising given the amount of disruption that has and continues to take place. However, the remarkable thing is that trade continues and has even rebounded throughout the year. Ukraine’s trade has clearly benefitted from its border with the European Union and access to Western European logistics networks to move goods in and out of the country. This analysis looks at how the structure of Ukraine’s imports and exports have changed throughout 2022.
COVID-19 vaccine production has led to significant additional temporary global vaccine traffic. However, with countries such as Brazil, China or India growing their manufacturing base this could create new regular cross border flows. This article looks at global vaccine production and cross border vaccine flows in and out of China, India, the United States and the European Union, as well as emerging flows out of countries such as Brazil and Russia.